Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of BBI Bürgerliches Brauhaus Immobilien AG (FRA:BBI)




  • In Business
  • 2022-12-08 05:30:26Z
  • By Simply Wall St.
 

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of BBI Bürgerliches Brauhaus Immobilien AG (FRA:BBI) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for BBI Bürgerliches Brauhaus Immobilien

The Calculation

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €73m

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.03%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.9%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r - g) = €10m× (1 + 0.03%) ÷ (7.9%- 0.03%) = €129m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= €129m÷ ( 1 + 7.9%)10= €60m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €133m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of €21.4, the company appears about fair value at a 16% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

Important Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at BBI Bürgerliches Brauhaus Immobilien as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.414. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For BBI Bürgerliches Brauhaus Immobilien, we've compiled three additional factors you should explore:

  1. Risks: As an example, we've found 1 warning sign for BBI Bürgerliches Brauhaus Immobilien that you need to consider before investing here.

  2. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

  3. Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the DB every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Join A Paid User Research Session
You'll receive a US$30 Amazon Gift card for 1 hour of your time while helping us build better investing tools for the individual investors like yourself. Sign up here

COMMENTS

More Related News

At UK£9.51, Is Watches of Switzerland Group plc (LON:WOSG) Worth Looking At Closely?
At UK£9.51, Is Watches of Switzerland Group plc (LON:WOSG) Worth Looking At Closely?

While Watches of Switzerland Group plc ( LON:WOSG ) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it saw a...

Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Grit Real Estate Income Group Limited (LON:GR1T)
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Grit Real Estate Income Group Limited (LON:GR1T)

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Grit Real Estate...

Estimating The Fair Value Of Creightons Plc (LON:CRL)
Estimating The Fair Value Of Creightons Plc (LON:CRL)

How far off is Creightons Plc ( LON:CRL ) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a...

A Look At The Fair Value Of DIC Asset AG (ETR:DIC)
A Look At The Fair Value Of DIC Asset AG (ETR:DIC)

How far off is DIC Asset AG ( ETR:DIC ) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a...

Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of adesso SE (ETR:ADN1)
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of adesso SE (ETR:ADN1)

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of adesso SE ( ETR:ADN1 ) by taking the expected...

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked with *

Cancel reply

Comments

Top News: Business