- By GF Value
The stock of Texas Roadhouse (NAS:TXRH, 30-year Financials) is believed to be significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $96.28 per share and the market cap of $6.7 billion, Texas Roadhouse stock gives every indication of being significantly overvalued. GF Value for Texas Roadhouse is shown in the chart below.
Warning! GuruFocus has detected 13 Warning Signs with TXRH. Click here to check it out.
TXRH 15-Year Financial Data
The intrinsic value of TXRH
Peter Lynch Chart of TXRH
Because Texas Roadhouse is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which averaged 3.4% over the past three years and is estimated to grow 8.49% annually over the next three to five years.
Link: These companies may deliever higher future returns at reduced risk.
Investing in companies with poor financial strength has a higher risk of permanent loss of capital. Thus, it is important to carefully review the financial strength of a company before deciding whether to buy its stock. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage is a great starting point for understanding the financial strength of a company. Texas Roadhouse has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.44, which is in the middle range of the companies in Restaurants industry. GuruFocus ranks the overall financial strength of Texas Roadhouse at 6 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Texas Roadhouse is fair. This is the debt and cash of Texas Roadhouse over the past years:
It is less risky to invest in profitable companies, especially those with consistent profitability over long term. A company with high profit margins is usually a safer investment than those with low profit margins. Texas Roadhouse has been profitable 10 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $2.4 billion and earnings of $0.45 a share. Its operating margin is 1.09%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Restaurants industry. Overall, the profitability of Texas Roadhouse is ranked 7 out of 10, which indicates fair profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Texas Roadhouse over the past years:
Growth is probably the most important factor in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long term performance of a company's stock. The faster a company is growing, the more likely it is to be creating value for shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. The 3-year average annual revenue growth rate of Texas Roadhouse is 3.4%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Restaurants industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is -19.8%, which ranks worse than 79% of the companies in Restaurants industry.
One can also evaluate a company's profitability by comparing its return on invested capital (ROIC) to its weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. If the return on invested capital exceeds the weighted average cost of capital, the company is likely creating value for its shareholders. During the past 12 months, Texas Roadhouse's ROIC is 2.37 while its WACC came in at 7.53. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Texas Roadhouse is shown below:
In closing, the stock of Texas Roadhouse (NAS:TXRH, 30-year Financials) appears to be significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is fair and its profitability is fair. Its growth ranks worse than 79% of the companies in Restaurants industry. To learn more about Texas Roadhouse stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
To find out the high quality companies that may deliever above average returns, please check out GuruFocus High Quality Low Capex Screener.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.