Scenarios: How Trump, U.S. Congress might end border wall shutdown fight




  • In US
  • 2019-01-07 19:03:34Z
  • By By Richard Cowan

By Richard Cowan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - As the partial U.S. government shutdown entered its 17th day, no clear end was in sight, with Republican President Donald Trump and congressional Democrats in a standoff over his demand for $5 billion for a U.S.-Mexico border wall.

It is hard to see how the impasse will be resolved but here are some possible scenarios for how it might play out, as well as potential winners and losers, based on interviews with lawmakers and aides in Congress and the Trump administration.

A COMPROMISE EMERGES

As the closure of a quarter of the government begins to hurt the economy, both sides could give ground and do a deal, possibly based on the following factors.

* "Dreamers." These mostly young Latin Americans are living in the United States after being brought into the country illegally as children. Trump could offer to protect them from deportation in return for wall money. A deal along these lines was nearly achieved previously but collapsed.

* Barrier, not wall. Trump has insisted on funding for a "wall" but he has also talked about steel fencing. Tall, slatted fences already are in place in some spots on the border and more are being built. Funding for more slats could let Trump declare victory and let Democrats say they blocked a wall. The same could be said for steel mesh pedestrian barriers and other types of fencing.

* Other steps. There are many additional ways to fortify the U.S.-Mexico border, such as deploying more all-terrain vehicles and border guards on horses. Large metal detectors also could be installed to scan trucks and buses for illegal activities.

* Follow the money. A dollar-figure bargain could be reached somewhere between Trump's demand for $5 billion in wall funding and the Democrats' offer of $1.6 billion for border security.

TRUMP DECLARES 'NATIONAL EMERGENCY'

Trump has threatened to declare a national emergency, claiming that illegal immigration jeopardizes U.S. security and empowers him to redirect existing federal funds to build his wall, perhaps by tapping the Defense Department budget. Under the Constitution, Congress holds the power to make decisions about spending U.S. taxpayers' money. Such a step by Trump would escalate what is now a policy dispute into a fight over presidential powers. Democrats would almost certainly move to block Trump, likely kicking off a protracted court battle.

DEMOCRATS FOLD, TRUMP WINS

Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer have vowed they will not give Trump any money to build a wall but as the shutdown grinds on, they could have second thoughts, although this seems unlikely given the political climate.

Democrats won a majority in the House of Representatives by a landslide in November's elections. Trump's approval rating continues to hover at around 40 percent. There is plenty of skepticism among voters about the need for a wall, polls show.

In addition, more voters blame Trump for the shutdown than congressional Democrats, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found in late December.

TRUMP BACKS DOWN, DEMOCRATS WIN

Trump, whose main responsibility as president is to make sure that the federal government carries out its duties, could find the shutdown too politically hazardous as everyday problems increasingly confront average Americans.

Closed national parks and museums is one thing. But federal airport security screeners, now working without pay, have begun calling in sick, potentially causing delays for air travelers.

Trump has promised for years to build his wall - initially saying Mexico would pay for it - and has repeatedly attacked Democrats for standing in his way. Now he may find the shutdown unsustainable, fold and endorse Democrats' shutdown-ending bills while finding a way to claim victory.

Bills passed by the House last week would fund the Department of Homeland Security through Feb. 8, giving the White House and Congress more time to negotiate on border security. Other agencies, such as Agriculture, Justice and Commerce, would have their funding restored under separate legislation.

Democrats this week plan to start passing agency-by-agency funding bills in the House of Representatives that they would then send to the Senate. Republicans there would then have to decide whether to approve the bills or block them in the name of Trump's wall project. Blocking a bill to fund the Treasury Department, for example, might delay Americans' tax refunds.

(Reporting by Richard Cowan; Editing by Kevin Drawbaugh and Bill Trott)

COMMENTS

More Related News

Should women be required to register for the draft? Congressional panel likely to recommend big changes
Should women be required to register for the draft? Congressional panel likely to recommend big changes

A congressional commission is considering a range of proposals, from eliminating the draft to making women eligible to requiring public service of all.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez says asking herself this question at 18 changed the direction of her life
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez says asking herself this question at 18 changed the direction of her life

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the youngest woman ever to be elected to Congress, almost didn't pursue politics until the death of her father forced her to "grapple with questions of legacy and what is important and what do I want to do with my life at 18," she told Ta-Nehisi Coates at the

Donald Trump can call a 'national emergency,' but that doesn't mean he can build the wall
Donald Trump can call a 'national emergency,' but that doesn't mean he can build the wall

Trump wants to divert military funds and take private property without congressional authorization. That's a dangerous precedent for future presidents.

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked with *

Cancel reply

Comments

Top News: US

facebook
Hit "Like"
Don't miss any important news
Thanks, you don't need to show me this anymore.