Omicron會對全球成長造成何種影響?高盛作出四種情境假設




 

【彭博】- 高盛集團經濟學家提出了新冠病毒新變種對全球經濟成長潛在影響的四種情境,並表示,目前還不清楚會出現哪種情境,現在就調整他們的預測還為時過早。

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  • 下行情境:Omicron比前一個變種德爾塔傳播得更快。這會導致第一季度全球經濟折合成年率的環比增速放緩至2%,比高盛當前的預測低2.5個百分點左右。至於2022年全年,全球經濟仍將擴張4.2%,比高盛當前的預測低0.4個百分點,而通膨前景「不明」

  • 嚴重下行:無論是疾病嚴重程度還是住院情況都比德爾塔糟糕得多。全球經濟成長將受到更嚴重的衝擊,而「對通膨的影響依然不明」

  • 虛驚一場:Omicron比德爾塔傳播得更慢,對全球經濟成長和通膨沒有重大影響

  • 上行情境:Omicron傳播性略強,但病情要輕得多。在這種推測的「正常化」情境下,疾病負擔淨減少會使全球增速高於高盛的基線預測。隨著需求再平衡以及商品和勞動力供應加速復甦,通膨率可能下降

「結果是,Omicron可能對成長產生重大影響,但醫療乃至經濟結果的範圍仍然異常寬泛,」高盛經濟學家Jan Hatzius等人在一份研究報告中表示。

「有鑒於此,加上'虛驚一場'的可能性,在這些情境出現的可能性變得更加明朗之前,我們不會因Omicron而調整我們的成長、通膨和貨幣政策預測,」他們表示。

接下來的情況可能取決於科學家的發現,包括新變異毒株對疫苗的抵抗力以及傳播情況比之德爾塔變種如何。

原文標題

Goldman Outlines Scenarios for Omicron's Impact on Global Growth

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