- By GF Value
The stock of Federal Signal (NYSE:FSS, 30-year Financials) gives every indication of being significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $38.81 per share and the market cap of $2.3 billion, Federal Signal stock is estimated to be significantly overvalued. GF Value for Federal Signal is shown in the chart below.
Warning! GuruFocus has detected 7 Warning Signs with FSS. Click here to check it out.
FSS 15-Year Financial Data
The intrinsic value of FSS
Peter Lynch Chart of FSS
Because Federal Signal is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which averaged 7.2% over the past three years and is estimated to grow 2.63% annually over the next three to five years.
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Companies with poor financial strength offer investors a high risk of permanent capital loss. To avoid permanent capital loss, an investor must do their research and review a company's financial strength before deciding to purchase shares. Both the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage of a company are a great way to to understand its financial strength. Federal Signal has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.35, which which ranks worse than 75% of the companies in Industrial Products industry. The overall financial strength of Federal Signal is 7 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Federal Signal is fair. This is the debt and cash of Federal Signal over the past years:
Investing in profitable companies carries less risk, especially in companies that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. Typically, a company with high profit margins offers better performance potential than a company with low profit margins. Federal Signal has been profitable 8 years over the past 10 years. During the past 12 months, the company had revenues of $1.1 billion and earnings of $1.56 a share. Its operating margin of 11.92% better than 75% of the companies in Industrial Products industry. Overall, GuruFocus ranks Federal Signal's profitability as fair. This is the revenue and net income of Federal Signal over the past years:
Growth is probably the most important factor in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long term stock performance of a company. A faster growing company creates more value for shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. The 3-year average annual revenue growth of Federal Signal is 7.2%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Industrial Products industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is 20.4%, which ranks better than 78% of the companies in Industrial Products industry.
One can also evaluate a company's profitability by comparing its return on invested capital (ROIC) to its weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. If the return on invested capital exceeds the weighted average cost of capital, the company is likely creating value for its shareholders. During the past 12 months, Federal Signal's ROIC is 9.67 while its WACC came in at 7.73. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Federal Signal is shown below:
In short, the stock of Federal Signal (NYSE:FSS, 30-year Financials) is estimated to be significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is fair and its profitability is fair. Its growth ranks better than 78% of the companies in Industrial Products industry. To learn more about Federal Signal stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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This article first appeared on GuruFocus.