While bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market seem to have found a footing despite the heightened credit risk faced by major industry players in the wake of FTX's collapse, there's still one factor that suggests the downtrend isn't over.
Meme cryptocurrency dogecoin (DOGE) has rallied 40% in the past 10 days, outpacing the 18% gain in ether (ETH) and bitcoin's 8% rise. Total market capitalization has increased by 10% to $808 billion, CoinDesk data show.
The discrepancy is significant because, historically, outsized gains in DOGE and other meme coins like shiba inu (SHIB) have portended a marketwide sell-off.
"Every time that [the] price of DOGE starts rising rapidly, there's a market-wide crash following just moments later," blockchain analytics firm Santiment said in a market insights note. "Right now, we are observing such a rise. Now the question is, is this time different?"
The chart shows rallies in DOGE, which started as a joke in 2013, have evolved as contrarian indicators in the past 12 months, prompting investors to trim bullish positioning in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The most notable example would be DOGE's late October surge that foreshadowed bitcoin's FTX-induced slide to 24-month lows in mid-November.
Whether history will repeat itself remains to be seen.