Brazil Holds Rates and Sounds the Alarm on Rising Inflation Bets

  • In Business
  • 2023-02-01 23:33:10Z
  • By Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) -- Brazil's central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged and expressed concern about the costs of taming rising inflation expectations that have been fueled by tensions with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's new government.

Most Read from Bloomberg

  • National Archives Releases Records Tied to Trump Classified Documents

  • Porsche Blunder Puts $148,000 Sportscar on Sale for Just $18,000

  • 8,000 Layoffs Don't Exactly Scream Family Values

  • Merck Covid Drug Linked to New Virus Mutations, Study Says

  • Plenty of Americans Are Drinking Bleach, Still for Sale on Amazon

Policymakers held the benchmark Selic at 13.75% for the fourth straight meeting late on Wednesday, in line with investor consensus. In a statement widely considered to be hawkish, board members wrote they will assess if keeping rates steady "for a longer period" than previously expected will slow inflation to target.

"The current scenario, particularly uncertain on the fiscal side and with inflation expectations drifting away from the inflation target on longer horizons, requires further attention when evaluating risks," they wrote. "The Committee judges that this scenario raises the cost of the disinflation that is needed to reach the targets" established for the years ahead.

Policymakers led by Roberto Campos Neto are battling rising cost-of-living expectations that make it more difficult to justify rate cuts, even as annual inflation has consistently eased over the past few months - to 5.87%, from last year's peak of more than 12%. The decline has been driven by tax cuts and restrictive borrowing costs, but fuel prices are now going up while core measures that strip out the most volatile items are accelerating.

Read More: Lula Squandered Rate Cut Chance, His Ex-Central Bank Chief Says

What Bloomberg Economics Says

"Officials referred to the strategy of holding rates for longer than what's assumed in its forecasts, i.e. consensus projections. We think that's an attempt to sound hawkish without suggesting a rate hike. Currently, the consensus forecast is for the first rate cut to come in September. The statement language suggests it may come later."

- Adriana Dupita, Brazil and Argentina economist

Click here for full report

The decision comes amid high political tensions, as Lula has questioned the central bank's independence and its inflation goals, suggesting it should pursue a 4.5% target. Currently, the bank targets price increases of 3.25% for 2023 and 3% for the next two years.

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad added to speculation that policies may change, saying that Brazil needs ambitious, yet feasible targets.

Investors are also fretting about the fiscal outlook, as Haddad is expected to propose new spending rules by April, replacing the current law that limits public expenditure increases to the prior year's inflation rate. The new government is also deploying 168 billion reais ($33 billion) in additional spending, including social aid, while weighing a higher minimum wage.

"The statement is hawkish," said Felipe Sichel, economist and partner at Modal Asset Management Ltda. "It leaves the door open to keeping rates steady for a longer period and clearly warns about worsening inflation expectations."

Sichel added that he sees no borrowing-cost cuts this year.

Extremely Harsh

In the statement, board members wrote that expectations for consumer price increases "have shown deterioration at longer horizons." Meanwhile, the global economy remains under inflationary pressure despite positive signs at the margin, they wrote.

Earlier on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve slowed the pace of rate rises but said more increases are in store. Regionally, policymakers from Mexico to Colombia continue to hike, while Chile's central bank President Rosanna Costa has pushed back against investor bets of the start of an easing cycle.

In an outlook considering rate cuts starting in September as shown in its weekly economist survey, Brazil's central bank sees consumer price increases above the ceiling of its tolerance range in 2023 and above target next year. In an alternative scenario with a constant Selic, inflation forecasts stand lower, at 5.5% for this year and 2.8% for next.

In the outlook with steady borrowing costs, "inflation is closer to the 3% target in 2024," said Leonardo Costa, an economist at Asa Investments. "That indicates the central bank's plan is to keep rates steady for a longer period."

Meanwhile, analysts see consumer prices rising above the bank's mid-term goal for the foreseeable future. Officials will set the 2026 target this year.

"The statement was extremely harsh," said Carla Argenta, chief economist at CM Capital. "The central bank understands that, under current conditions, we don't have inflationary convergence, and that the institution should make some change in its monetary policy or keep rates steady for longer."

--With assistance from Giovanna Serafim and Raphael Almeida Dos Santos.

(Re-casts story, adds details from statement starting in second paragraph)

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

  • Wall Street: We Want Lower Rates. The Fed: Not So Fast

  • Sean Penn's Disaster-Relief Charity Ended Up a Money Mess

  • A 3D Printer Isn't Cool. You Know What's Cool? A 3D-Printing Factory

  • A $500 Million Bet on Reinvigorating Japan's Aging Ski Industry

  • Spanish-Speaking Streamers Are the Hottest Thing on Twitch

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.


More Related News

Putin's Belarus Nuclear Move Puts Him at Odds With China Pledge
  • World
  • 2023-03-27 13:13:04Z

(Bloomberg) -- While Russian President Vladimir Putin's plan to station nuclear weapons in neighboring Belarus is unlikely to change Europe's strategic...

First Citizens Buys Silicon Valley Bank After Run on Lender
First Citizens Buys Silicon Valley Bank After Run on Lender

(Bloomberg) -- First Citizens BancShares Inc. agreed to buy Silicon Valley Bank which was seized by regulators following a run on the lender.Most Read from...

Impax CEO Says Funds Have Run Out of
Impax CEO Says Funds Have Run Out of 'Investible' Green Assets

(Bloomberg) -- Impax Asset Management Group, which runs one of the world's biggest investment portfolios geared toward a low-carbon economy, is warning that ...

US Futures Waver, Bonds Dip With Markets on Edge: Markets Wrap
US Futures Waver, Bonds Dip With Markets on Edge: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) -- Early gains for US equity futures evaporated as markets remained on edge, with investors weighing the risk of recession and its impact on...

The Fed
The Fed's rate hike policy doesn't have many fans - but abandoning the inflation target would be a 'disaster' that brings the economy back to the 1970s, a Fed official says

The Fed says that the 2% inflation target is the most consistent with its mandate for "maximum employment and price stability."

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked with *

Cancel reply


Top News: Business