Bowl projections and College Football Playoff predictions before Championship Weekend and after the penultimate CFP rankings
A whole slew of things changed in the last few days since we published our latest round of Bowl Projections on Saturday night.
It starts with the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings - which might be a fool's errand to use as anything concrete. If the committee sticks with its rankings in the end - that's hardly a sure thing - that affects Alabama, Notre Dame, Tennessee, and potentially Washington.
Next, a slew of rumors and news kicked in as programs needed to start thinking about making travel plans.
A few other things happened to change these up.
Ohio State probably isn't going to the Rose Bowl. It'll be time to believe the Rose Bowl doesn't want the fifth-best team in the country when it happens - and vice versa on the desire from the Buckeyes to go back to Pasadena.
Let's buy in that the rumors are true. If USC beats Utah on Friday night in the Pac-12 Championship and is in the College Football Playoff, assume the Rose Bowl will go with Penn State and Washington instead of Ohio State vs Utah - no one involved wants a repeat, even though last year's game between the Buckeyes and Utes was epic.
Remember, at the end of the day, ESPN wants the best matchups for its owned bowls. As always, the conference bowl ties matter … until they don't.
Buffalo vs Akron matters. If Buffalo wins on Friday night, it's in. If it doesn't, it's out. Let's go with the big assumption that New Mexico State will be granted a special break despite being 5-6 because its game with San Jose State was cancelled.
If that happens, then Buffalo, NMSU, and the highest-ranked five-win team according to the Academic Progress Rate (APR) - Rice - are all in. If Buffalo loses and/or NMSU doesn't get the call its way, UNLV is in as the second-highest ranked five-win APR team.
However …
Everything breaks down if Utah beats USC on Friday night and/or Akron beats Buffalo and/or New Mexico State doesn't get a break. If any or all three of those things happen, take all of this, ball it up, and toss it away because most of this starts from scratch.
What we do know is Miami University and UAB are off to the Bahamas Bowl, and because there are few fun places to go if your school is in San Diego, San Diego State and Middle Tennessee will meet in the Hawaii Bowl.
Other than that, we're going off a combination of news, info, logic, and educated darts thrown at the target. They aren't called bowl projections for nothing.
We'll change things on the fly over the next few days before the big final call goes up Saturday night.
Bowl Projections College Football Playoff Predictions
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CFN 1-131 Rankings | Rankings by Conference
Bowl Eligibility: Every School's Bowl Situation
2022-2023 conference bowl tie-ins
Bowl Projections: Pre-Championship Weekend
Bowl Projections, Part 2 | New Year's Six
College Football Playoff Prediction
Teams that accepted bowl bid are in red.
All Times Eastern
HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl
Friday, December 16, 2022
11:30 am, ESPN
Thomas Robinson Stadium, Nassau, Bahamas
Last Year: Middle Tennessee 31, Toledo 24
Bowl Ties: Conference USA vs MAC
Bowl Matchup: UAB vs Miami University
Duluth Trading Cure Bowl
Friday, December 16, 2022
3:00, ESPN
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Last Year: Coastal Carolina 47, Northern Illinois 41
Bowl Ties: Group of Five vs Group of Five or Army
Bowl Projection: Troy vs UTSA
Previous Projection: UConn vs Coastal Carolina
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Saturday, December 17, 2022
11:00 am, ESPN
Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Last Year: Canceled
Bowl Ties: ACC vs American Athletic (Conference USA)
Bowl Projection: Louisville vs Cincinnati
Previous Projection: Syracuse vs Memphis
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Saturday, December 17, 2022
12:00, ABC
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Last Year: South Carolina State 31, Jackson State 10
Bowl Ties: MEAC vs SWAC
Bowl Projection: North Carolina Central vs Jackson State
Previous Projection: North Carolina Central vs Jackson State
New Mexico Bowl
Saturday, December 17, 2022
2:15, ESPN
Dreamstyle Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Last Year: Fresno State 31, UTEP 24
Bowl Ties: Mountain West vs AAC, C-USA, MAC or Sun Belt
Bowl Projection: Wyoming vs BYU
Previous Projection: Air Force vs North Texas
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
Saturday, December 17, 2022
3:30, ABC
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Last Year: Utah State 24, Oregon State 13
Bowl Ties: Mountain West vs Pac-12
Bowl Projection: Boise State vs Washington State
Previous Projection: Boise State vs Washington State
LendingTree Bowl
Saturday, December 17, 2022
5:45, ESPN
Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL
Last Year: Liberty 56, Eastern Michigan 20
Bowl Ties: MAC vs Sun Belt (C-USA)
Bowl Projection: Ohio vs Southern Miss
Previous Projection: Bowling Green vs Louisiana
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Saturday, December 17, 2022
7:30, ABC
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Last Year: Wisconsin 20, Arizona State 13
Bowl Ties: Pac-12 vs SEC
Bowl Projection: Oregon State vs Florida
Previous Projection: UCLA vs Arkansas
Frisco Bowl
Saturday, December 17, 2022
9:15, ESPN
Toyota Stadium, Frisco, TX
Last Year: San Diego State 38, UTSA 24
Bowl Ties: Group of Five vs Group of Five or Army
Bowl Projection: Rice vs New Mexico State or UNLV
Previous Projection: Troy vs Fresno State
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Monday, December 19, 2022
2:30, ESPN
Brooks Stadium, Conway, SC
Last Year: Tulsa 30, Old Dominion 17
Bowl Ties: C-USA, MAC, Sun Belt
Bowl Projection: Liberty vs Marshall
Previous Projection: Liberty vs Georgia Southern
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Tuesday, December 20, 2022
3:30 ESPN
Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
Last Year: Wyoming 52, Kent State 38
Bowl Ties: MAC vs Mountain West
Bowl Projection: Eastern Michigan vs Utah State
Previous Projection: Buffalo vs Utah State
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
Tuesday, December 20, 2022
7:30, ESPN
FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, FL
Last Year: WKU 59, Appalachian State 38
Bowl Ties: Group of Five vs Group of Five
Bowl Projection: UConn vs Coastal Carolina
Previous Projection: Southern Miss vs Houston
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Wednesday, December 21, 2022
9:00, ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Last Year: Louisiana 36, Marshall 21
Bowl Ties: Conference USA vs Sun Belt
Bowl Projection: WKU vs South Alabama
Previous Projection: WKU vs South Alabama
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Thursday, December 22, 2022
7:30, ESPN
Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Last Year: Army 24, Missouri 22
Bowl Ties: American Athletic vs Conference USA (Big 12, Pac-12)
Bowl Projection: SMU vs Air Force
Previous Projection: SMU vs UTSA
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Friday, December 23, 2022
TBA, ESPN
Independence Bowl, Shreveport, LA
Last Year: UAB 31, BYU 28
Bowl Ties: American Athletic vs Army
Bowl Projection: Houston vs Louisiana
Previous Projection: UCF vs BYU
Union Home Gasparilla Bowl
Friday, December 23, 2022
TBA, ESPN
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Last Year: UCF 29, Florida 17
Bowl Ties: ACC, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC (AAC, C-USA)
Bowl Projection: East Carolina vs North Texas
Previous Projection: Marshall vs Duke
Easyport Hawaii Bowl
Saturday, December 24, 2022
8:00, ESPN
Clarence TC Ching Complex, Honolulu, HI
Last Year: Canceled
Bowl Ties: Conference USA vs Mountain West
Bowl matchup: Middle Tennessee vs San Diego State
Previous Projection: Middle Tennessee vs San Jose State
Bowl Projections: Pre-Championship Weekend
Bowl Projections, Part 2 | New Year's Six
College Football Playoff Prediction
More Bowl Projections Before Championship Weekend: NEXT
Bowl Projections Championship Weekend
Quick Lane Bowl
Monday, December 26, 2022
2:30, ESPN
Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Last Year: Western Michigan 52, Nevada 24
Bowl Ties: Big Ten vs MAC
Bowl Projection: Maryland vs Bowling Green
Previous Projection: Rice vs Toledo
Camellia Bowl
Tuesday, December 27, 2022
12:00, ESPN
Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, AL
Last Year: Georgia State 51, Ball State 20
Bowl Ties: MAC vs Sun Belt (Conference USA)
Bowl Projection: Buffalo vs Georgia Southern
Previous Projection: Eastern Michigan vs Appalachian State
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Tuesday, December 27, 2022
3:15 or 6:45, ESPN
Gerald J. Ford Stadium, University Park, TX
Last Year: Air Force 31, Louisville 28
Bowl Ties: AAC, ACC, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC
Bowl Projection: Kansas vs Fresno State
Previous Projection: Kansas vs Wyoming
TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Tuesday, December 27, 2022
3:15 or 6:45, ESPN
Protective Stadium, Birmingham, AL
Last Year: Houston 17, Auburn 13
Bowl Ties: American Athletic vs SEC (ACC)
Bowl Projection: Memphis vs Missouri
Previous Projection: Cincinnati vs Missouri
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Tuesday, December 27, 2022
10:15, ESPN
Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Last Year: Minnesota 18, West Virginia 6
Bowl Ties: Big Ten vs Big 12 (Mountain West)
Bowl Projection: Wisconsin vs Baylor
Previous Projection: Wisconsin vs Baylor
Military Bowl
Wednesday, December 28, 2022
2:00, ESPN
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD
Last Year: Canceled
Bowl Ties: ACC vs American Athletic
Bowl Projection: Wake Forest vs UCF
Previous Projection: Wake Forest vs East Carolina
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Wednesday, December 28, 2022
5:30, ESPN
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, TN
Last Year: Texas Tech 34, Mississippi State 7
Bowl Ties: Big 12 vs SEC
Bowl Projection: Oklahoma State vs Kentucky
Previous Projection: Oklahoma vs Ole Miss
San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Wednesday, December 28, 2022
TBA, FOX
Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Last Year: Canceled
Bowl Ties: ACC vs Pac-12
Bowl Projection: North Carolina vs Oregon
Previous Projection: North Carolina vs Oregon
TaxAct Texas Bowl
Wednesday, December 28, 2022
9:00, ESPN
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Last Year: Kansas State 42, LSU 20
Bowl Ties: Big 12 vs SEC
Bowl Projection: Oklahoma vs Arkansas
Previous Projection: Oklahoma State vs Mississippi State
Pinstripe Bowl
Thursday, December 29, 2022
2:00, ESPN
Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Last Year: Maryland 54, Virginia Tech 10
Bowl Ties: ACC vs Big Ten
Bowl Projection: Syracuse vs Minnesota
Previous Projection: Pitt vs Maryland
Cheez-It Bowl
Thursday, December 29, 2022
5:30, ESPN
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Last Year: Clemson 20, Iowa State 13
Bowl Ties: ACC vs Big 12
Bowl Projection: Florida State vs Texas Tech
Previous Projection: Florida State vs Texas Tech
Valero Alamo Bowl
Thursday, December 29, 2022
9:00, ESPN
Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Last Year: Oklahoma 47, Oregon 32
Bowl Ties: Big 12 vs Pac-12
Bowl Projection: Texas vs Utah
Previous Projection: Texas vs Utah
Duke's Mayo Bowl
Friday, December 30, 2022
12:00, ESPN
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Last Year: South Carolina 38, North Carolina 21
Bowl Ties: ACC vs Big Ten
Bowl Projection: NC State vs Iowa
Previous Projection: NC State vs Iowa
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Friday, December 30, 2022
2:00, CBS
Sun Bowl Stadium, El Paso, TX
Last Year: Central Michigan 24, Washington State 21
Bowl Ties: ACC vs Pac-12
Bowl Projection: Duke vs UCLA
Previous Projection: Louisville vs Oregon State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Friday, December 30, 2022
3:30, ESPN
TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Last Year: Wake Forest 38, Rutgers 10
Bowl Ties: ACC vs SEC
Bowl Projection: Pitt vs Mississippi State
Previous Projection: Notre Dame vs Florida
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Friday, December 30, 2022
4:30, Barstool
Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ
Last Year: Canceled
Bowl Ties: MAC vs Mountain West
Bowl Projection: Toledo vs San Jose State
Previous Projection: Ohio vs San Diego State
TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Saturday, December 31, 2022
12:00, ESPN
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Last Year: Purdue 48, Tennessee 45 OT
Bowl Ties: Big Ten vs SEC
Bowl Projection: Illinois vs Ole Miss
Previous Projection: Minnesota vs Kentucky
ReliaQuest Bowl
Monday, January 2, 2023
12:00, ESPN2
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Last Year: Arkansas 24, Penn State 10
Bowl Ties: SEC vs Big Ten or ACC
Bowl Projection: South Carolina vs Notre Dame
Previous Projection: South Carolina vs Illinois
Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Monday, January 2, 2023
1:00, ABC
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Last Year: Kentucky 20, Iowa 17
Bowl Ties: Big Ten vs SEC
Bowl Projection: Purdue vs LSU
Previous Projection: Purdue vs LSU
Bowl Projections: Pre-Championship Weekend
Bowl Projections | New Year's Six
College Football Playoff Prediction
New Year's Six Bowl Projections 2022-2023: NEXT
New Year's Six Bowl Projections 2022-2023 Championship Week
This all hinges on the belief that the Rose Bowl isn't going to take Ohio State/Ohio State doesn't really want to go to the Rose Bowl.
This all blows up if Utah beats USC in the Pac-12 Championship, but if the Trojans win, and the Rose and Ohio State really don't want to hook up, that opens up a few big possibilities.
That means Ohio State would probably go to the Orange Bowl, which then means Alabama would almost certainly go to the Sugar, which means Tennessee would get the date with Tulane in the Cotton, which then means Notre Dame is most likely off to the ReliaQuest Bowl if it doesn't go to the Gator.
Oh yeah, that also means Penn State is off to the Rose Bowl to likely play Washington - assuming Utah slips down a few spaces with a loss to USC.
But what happens if Utah beats USC? Then Utah goes to the Rose against Penn State, and then this gets really, really funky because Ohio State probably goes to the College Football Playoff, Tennessee probably goes to the Sugar, USC likely plays Tulane in the Fiesta, and then a Big Ten team - probably Illinois - would go to the ReliaQuest and Notre Dame might go the Gator, and … got all this?
We'll update this Friday night after the Pac-12 Championship if needed.
Capital One Orange Bowl
Friday, December 30, 2022
7:30 or 8:00, ESPN
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Last Year: CFP Semifinal Georgia 34, Michigan 11
Bowl Ties: ACC vs Big Ten, Notre Dame, or SEC
Bowl Projection: Clemson vs Ohio State
Previous Projection: Clemson vs Alabama
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Saturday, December 31, 2022
12:00, ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Last Year: Baylor 21, Ole Miss 7
Bowl Ties: SEC vs Big 12
Bowl Projection: Alabama vs Kansas State
Previous Projection: Tennessee vs Kansas State
Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Monday, January 2, 2023
1:00, ESPN
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Last Year: CFP Semifinal Alabama 27, Cincinnati 6
Bowl Ties: New Year's Six vs top Group of Five champion
Bowl Projection: Tulane vs Tennessee
Previous Projection: Tulane vs Penn State
Rose Bowl
Monday, January 2, 2023
5:00, ESPN
Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
Last Year: Ohio State 48, Utah 45
Bowl Ties: Big Ten vs Pac-12
Bowl Projection: Penn State vs Washington
Previous Projection: Ohio State vs Washington
Bowl Projections: Pre-Championship Weekend
Bowl Projections | Bowl Projections, Part 2
College Football Playoff Prediction
2022-2023 College Football Playoff Projections: NEXT
2022-2023 College Football Playoff Projections
Assuming everything goes according to plan, this might be way too easy.
Georgia and Michigan are almost certainly in no matter what happens in their respective conference championships, and TCU is probably in even if it loses to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship.
If USC wins the Pac-12 Championship and TCU loses, does Ohio State get in? It's possible, but assume Ohio State gets in if Utah beats the Trojans.
College Football Playoff Semifinal: Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Saturday, December 31, 2022
4:00 or 8:00, ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Last Year: Michigan State 31, Pitt 21
Bowl Ties: CFP vs CFP
Bowl Projection: Georgia vs USC
Previous Projection: Georgia vs USC
College Football Playoff Semifinal: Fiesta Bowl
Saturday, December 31, 2022
4:00 or 8:00, ESPN
State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Last Year: Oklahoma State 37, Notre Dame 35
Bowl Ties: CFP vs CFP
Bowl Projection: Michigan vs TCU
Previous Projection: Michigan vs TCU
College Football Playoff National Championship
Monday, January 9, 2023
TBA, ESPN
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Last Year: Georgia 33, Alabama 18
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Winner vs Fiesta Bowl Winner
Bowl Projection: Georgia vs Michigan
Previous Projection: Georgia vs Michigan
Bowl Projections: Pre-Championship Weekend
Bowl Projections | Bowl Projections, Part 2 | New Year's Six
- 2022 CFN College Football Schedule & Results
Story originally appeared on College Football News
